Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 19.855083 23.905139 28.362149 33.603366 39.569450 46.120761 53.829239
2025-09-14 13.471874 18.629635 24.900634 32.964519 42.929178 54.707261 69.539223
2025-09-21 10.433318 16.104288 23.550224 33.776351 47.167106 63.807253 85.719031
2025-09-28 7.613392 13.096128 20.846583 32.158568 47.758846 68.005843 95.695298
2025-10-05 6.376258 11.997867 20.433917 33.346908 51.871002 76.701749 111.609004
2025-10-12 5.339645 10.958755 19.882109 34.153038 55.363759 84.617487 126.739211
2025-10-19 4.485553 10.022400 19.305370 34.771363 58.514700 92.109904 141.519577
2025-10-26 3.846054 9.317323 18.966417 35.651906 62.017968 100.171936 157.328602
2025-11-02 3.119976 8.279828 17.902410 35.222362 63.438816 105.236772 169.049404
2025-11-09 2.614250 7.561684 17.276843 35.406753 65.751014 111.627725 182.821496
2025-11-16 2.138166 6.784815 16.418371 35.075587 67.164721 116.675365 194.756296
2025-11-23 1.671681 5.895678 15.198254 33.954406 67.163152 119.506711 203.449719
2025-11-30 1.415418 5.487826 14.942808 34.671987 70.462951 127.881596 221.236105
2025-12-07 1.095597 4.800850 13.993668 33.999894 71.370985 132.596090 233.761115
2025-12-14 0.929856 4.501103 13.838757 34.830243 74.921135 141.642514 253.219738
2025-12-21 0.666844 3.764664 12.525567 33.173005 73.877195 143.139077 260.924885
2025-12-28 0.581749 3.614108 12.604929 34.390302 78.131504 153.509822 282.920764
2026-01-04 0.493804 3.410473 12.510243 35.215948 81.684897 162.820487 303.483520
2026-01-11 0.413185 3.194149 12.339910 35.849172 84.891844 171.641798 323.494122
2026-01-18 0.352551 3.034397 12.294959 36.750833 88.650948 181.523110 345.482847
2026-01-25 0.270259 2.706500 11.697107 36.311002 89.739157 186.798552 360.052929
2026-02-01 0.216495 2.489828 11.384050 36.499812 92.070111 194.306978 378.491217
2026-02-08 0.164533 2.231747 10.879360 36.160706 93.291999 199.867692 393.801725